September 2026, Week 3

This week's key points

• —US: Pork carcass cutout down 22% y/y, the lowest in two years and seven months
• —US: Feed prices rise, with cash corn up 27% y/y and soybean meal up 22% — while hog prices are down 19%
• —EU: Pig prices (carcass-weight basis) fall after seven straight weekly gains — Germany's producer groups cut next week's reference price by 15 cents
• —Japan: Bullish outlook for domestic pork, bearish outlook for imports — the fall in US prices is expected to show up in import unit prices several months later

US: Pork carcass cutout down 22% y/y, the lowest in two years and seven months

Latest: The weekly average was 87.63 USD/cwt, down for eight straight weeks since late July. It is down 4.5% w/w, down 21.9% y/y, and 14.9% below the five-year average for the week — the lowest since February 2024. Last 4 weeks: Down 10.6% from four weeks ago, against an average move of -3.1% over the same four weeks in past years — a steeper decline than usual. Year to date: The average since January is 97.1 USD/cwt, 6.6% below the same period last year.